Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: seven people killed, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.
Every new proposal from Washington adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They manage the tension but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame specific actors of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from believing that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
