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Initially, Trump gave the impression to embrace a firm stance regarding Ukraine. Following delivering statements of "severe ramifications" in August if Putin continued hindering peace talks, the former president eventually introduced major restrictions on Russia's biggest petroleum corporations, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously hindered Putin's capability to support his aggression in Ukraine.

However, through his latest detailed peace proposal for Ukraine, reportedly developed by American and Russian officials excluding Ukrainian or European participation, Trump has apparently gone back to his favorable to Russia approach.

Rewarding Invasion

The former president's proposal would essentially reward Putin for attacking Ukraine while placing Ukraine's democracy in jeopardy. Despite bold statements that "Ukraine's sovereignty will be upheld", significant aspects of the proposal effectively undermine that very autonomy. This constitutes a Moscow's wish would certainly be a catastrophe for the nation.

Showing his corporate past, the former president seems to treat the war as a mere border issue, implying handing Putin a section of Ukraine's soil will please the ruler. But, Russia's invasion is not only about occupying a damaged region of economically weakened land in Ukraine's east. Rather, it is about the nation's political system – and the Russian leader's obvious goal to weaken it so it ceases to serves as an attractive model for the Russian people of the responsible governance that Putin's deepening autocracy prevents them.

Border Concessions

Although freezing in position the already divided oblasts of these areas, Trump's initiative would compel Ukraine to abandon all of Donetsk province. Beyond favoring Russia with land that its military have been unable to capture in over a decade of warfare, this concession would leave Ukraine's military defenses severely compromised.

Donetsk is the place of the nation's much-vaunted "fortress belt", the well-established military defenses that are a essential impediment to Russian advances. The proposal would have the Ukrainian military abandon these fortifications, giving Russian forces a unobstructed path to the capital in case he eventually choose to restart the war.

Military Limitations

Furthermore, in a action that would make additional hostilities more feasible for Russia, the plan would require the nation to reduce the scale of its armed forces from their current approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the plan places no equivalent constraints on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a concession to Russia's attempts to portray Ukraine's chosen by the people leadership as Nazis, Trump's plan declares: "All Nazi belief system and actions must be opposed and forbidden." Apparently to underscore this aspect, it requires that "The nation will hold democratic votes in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump sets no obligation that Putin risk his regime by holding democratic processes in his own country.

Protection Commitments

Certainly, the proposal has the Russian Federation pledge not to "invade bordering nations" and to "establish in legislation its policy of non-aggression towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". But taking into account that the Russian leadership has broken similar accords in the history – such as the Budapest accord, in which Russia committed to recognize the nation's sovereignty in return for relinquishing its historical nuclear weapons, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Moscow committed to a ceasefire and a return of occupied territory in the region to Ukrainian control – for what reason should anyone have confidence in Russia this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so adamant on western security guarantees. Although the plan promises a "strong unified defense action" if Russia renew its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive reliable security guarantees", the particulars vary from vague to alarming. The proposal would not just prevent the nation accession to NATO but also preclude alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the security presence, presumptively headed by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to prevent Putin from replenishing his reduced troops, restocking, and reinvading.

World Concern

A separate supplementary accord apparently would provide Ukraine with a Nato-style protection assurance, in which any later "significant, intentional, and ongoing armed attack" by Russia on Ukraine "would be considered as an attack threatening the tranquility of the allied countries." This indicates a defense action. Yet in contrast to a capable Ukrainian military – Ukraine's most reliable defense against future hostilities – the success of the parallel accord would depend on the willingness of Western powers, including the US administration, to act with force to Russia's attacks, an action they have {not