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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a peace deal developed with American diplomats are poised to be finalised in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Persist

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been settled. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the current dialogue.

In the early hours of Tuesday, the Ukrainian president said that the American legislature is expected to consider defense assurances and that a complete package of documents might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and endorsed by the US Congress,” the president remarked to journalists. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror article 5” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow attempted to seize more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the U.S. has no plans to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would serve as guarantees matching NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Russia is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the issue of land. One proposal involves Ukraine ceding the areas of the Donbas region it still holds, while the Ukrainian side prefers to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is one of the key issues. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a middle-ground proposal. Under this plan would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russia would not advance, with the resulting zone becoming “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, implying it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean controlled by Moscow. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the land question. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a compromise solution such as a special economic area might be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the proposals are presented to Russian president Vladimir Putin, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from Ukraine to the Americans,” he concluded.