Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
